There’s a seismic shift happening in the world of international basketball, and it’s coming from across the Atlantic. Fueled by the explosion of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals in the United States, top European prospects are increasingly turning their backs on elite youth academies like those at Real Madrid and FC Barcelona in favor of American college basketball, where they can earn life-changing money before even turning professional.
In a move that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago, both Real Madrid and FC Barcelona are reportedly considering eliminating or restructuring their youth basketball academies. The reason? A growing number of their top talents are leaving before clubs can benefit from their development—either on the court or via transfer fees.
The Financial Equation
In Europe, youth development is a long-term investment. Clubs spend years—and millions—developing players in professional environments, housing them, feeding them, and educating them, all in hopes of integrating them into the senior team or profiting from a sale. But now, that model is being threatened.
Why should a 17-year-old stay in Europe for modest compensation and the hope of a pro contract when they can head to a U.S. college, earn six figures in NIL deals, and still prepare for the NBA?
Just look at the case of Dame Sarr, who left FC Barcelona midseason to participate in the Nike Hoop Summit without club permission. Or Kasparas Jakucionis, another Barcelona talent who bolted for Illinois. They’re not outliers—they’re trailblazers.
The Trickle-Down Effect
If Real Madrid and Barcelona, the gold standard of European development, start dismantling their academies, what message does that send to the rest of Europe? Especially countries like Germany, where teams like ALBA Berlin, Ratiopharm Ulm and Basketball Löwen Braunschweig have made significant investments in youth development?
The short-term consequences could be devastating:
- Domestic leagues will suffer. With fewer elite prospects staying, the quality of play in leagues like Spain’s ACB, Germany’s BBL, and France’s LNB will decline.
- Middle- and lower-tier teams lose access to talent. Traditionally, players developed in elite academies filter down to other domestic clubs. If these players now leave for the U.S., that pipeline dries up.
- Fan interest could decline. Local fans love watching homegrown players rise through the ranks. If that narrative disappears, so might the connection between clubs and communities.
The NIL Bubble and the Return to Europe
Eventually, these players will return to Europe. And when they do, a strange irony awaits them: they will likely earn less than they did in college. NIL money inflates their short-term value, but European clubs operate under much tighter budgets, and strict player hierarchies. A 22-year-old coming back from college will face fierce competition for roster spots, often against American imports or seasoned veterans.
Here’s where the bubble could burst: many players and their families are banking on NIL-level money becoming the new normal. It won’t. NIL deals in the U.S. are often funded by alumni boosters and sponsors looking for short-term marketing exposure, not sustainable player development. Once those players return to Europe, they’ll enter a more structured, merit-based system—one that doesn’t pay six figures unless you’re a proven contributor at the highest level.
The result? A harsh reality check. Players who once earned $200,000 per year through NIL may now be looking at €40,000–60,000 contracts—if they’re lucky. Some may not find a spot at all, especially if they’ve been playing against weaker competition in college compared to the daily grind of a pro environment in Europe. This could lead to widespread disillusionment and a reassessment of the “college first” path.
I am highly interested how players and clubs react in the next 2-4 years when these players come back to Europe.
Agents and advisors will need to manage expectations better, and clubs might become more selective about returning players who have never faced the rigors of European pro ball. These players will need to reprove themselves, and not every club will be willing to invest in that process.
What’s Next? Possible Reactions
European basketball must adapt, or risk falling behind:
- Lifting or Loosening Import Bans:
Domestic leagues may consider following the EuroLeague model, where there are no foreign player restrictions. This would open the door for more international talent, but it also means fewer spots for domestic players—further weakening local development. - Contractual Reform:
European clubs might start demanding binding pre-professional contracts that include financial penalties or compensation clauses if a player bolts for the NCAA. - Enhanced Incentives:
Clubs may begin offering competitive stipends, endorsements, or education incentives to keep young talent home. - Collective Action:
FIBA and European federations could step in to create regulatory frameworks that protect clubs’ investments in youth players, perhaps similar to FIFA’s training compensation model in soccer.
A Controversial Prognosis
Some purists will argue that players should do what’s best for their careers—and they should. But the current NIL-driven exodus could unintentionally destroy the ecosystem that made Europe a factory of elite basketball talent. If Real Madrid and FC Barcelona, with all their prestige and resources, are pulling back, what chance do smaller clubs have?
I believe we are at a crossroads. Either European basketball modernizes its approach, or it becomes a feeder system not for the NBA, but for NCAA basketball. The irony is painful: decades of European development excellence now risk being undermined not by the NBA, but by college boosters and Instagram followers.
The question isn’t just what’s best for the players. It’s also, what kind of future does European basketball want to build?